FYI: Quarantine, isolation work in pandemic

[Story]

Quarantine, isolation work in pandemic

ANN ARBOR, Mich., Aug. 8 (UPI) -- University of Michigan medical historians and U.S. epidemiologists say social restrictions such as quarantine could save lives during a pandemic.

Researchers at the University of Michigan and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta say social restrictions allowed 43 U.S. cities to save thousands of lives during the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, when no vaccine for the disease was available.

The researchers discovered that city-to-city variation in mortality was associated with the timing, duration and combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

For example, closing schools and canceling public gatherings relatively early in the pandemic -- and sustaining the practices for about 10 weeks -- resulted in St. Louis having one of the largest drops in mortality while the non-pharmaceutical interventions were in force.

"In a world faced by the threat of newly emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, it is critical to determine if costly and potentially socially harsh non-pharmaceutical interventions measures can save lives and reduce the numbers of those infected," said lead author Dr. Howard Markel, director of the University of Michigan Center for the History of Medicine.

[copperhead]

Thank goodness it is a bird disease. It may mutate in a couple thousand years or maybe gov.thugs will mutate it?

[Jonas Parker]

Thank goodness it is a bird disease. It may mutate in a couple thousand years or maybe gov.thugs will mutate it?

Actually, it will probably mutate all by itself in a couple of years without any help from anyone. The surest way to save yourself and your family from a pandemic is voluntary quarantine, and that means "total quarantine", no running to the store. When you put mail into or take mail out of the mailbox, use disposable gloves. Everyone in the family washes hands often.

The length of the quarantine required is in direct proportion to the size of the city you're in. You may have to keep your family in the house for 2-3 weeks up to 2-3 months. Simply put, you must have food for that length of time.

What you do when your friends, neighbors, or family members not living in your house come pounding on your door for help is up to you, but a decision on this should be reached with your entire family now, when this can be discussed unemotionally and before TSHTF.

[copperhead]

Actually, it will probably mutate all by itself in a couple of years without any help from anyone. The surest way to save yourself and your family from a pandemic is voluntary quarantine, and that means "total quarantine", no running to the store. When you put mail into or take mail out of the mailbox, use disposable gloves. Everyone in the family washes hands often.

The length of the quarantine required is in direct proportion to the size of the city you're in. You may have to keep your family in the house for 2-3 weeks up to 2-3 months. Simply put, you must have food for that length of time.

What you do when your friends, neighbors, or family members not living in your house come pounding on your door for help is up to you, but a decision on this should be reached with your entire family now, when this can be discussed unemotionally and before TSHTF.

Where do you get your information that it will probably mutate in a couple years?

[Jonas Parker]

Check the CDC website...

[copperhead]

Check the CDC website...
I know of no way to predict when a virus will become zoonotic. This is a huge case of fear mongering.

[Jonas Parker]

You didn't read the posts or the reference, did you? You are correct in that there is no way to predict (exactly) when a virus will mutate... only historical data as to how long it took similar virii to mutate. Perhaps you should do your homework before calling other people names (like fearmongerer). Hopefully you're right, everything will remain sweetness and light forever and you'll be happily looking at a website named "pollyanna.com". Now put your fangs back where they belong and slither off like a good little snake... :p

[copperhead]

You didn't read the posts or the reference, did you? You are correct in that there is no way to predict (exactly) when a virus will mutate... only historical data as to how long it took similar virii to mutate. Perhaps you should do your homework before calling other people names (like fearmongerer). Hopefully you're right, everything will remain sweetness and light forever and you'll be happily looking at a website named "pollyanna.com". Now put your fangs back where they belong and slither off like a good little snake... :p

No, I didn't go and read it. Nor do I blow people off when they ask me why I've said something. I have read their site in the past. I teach a course on Biological and Chemical Warfare, which includes zoonotic diseases. And actually, I've done plenty of homework. Now, back off to the pen for you ... BAHHHH... BAHHHH.

[DrBaboon]

No, I didn't go and read it. Nor do I blow people off when they ask me why I've said something. I have read their site in the past. I teach a course on Biological and Chemical Warfare, which includes zoonotic diseases. And actually, I've done plenty of homework. Now, back off to the pen for you ... BAHHHH... BAHHHH.

You know, just for the sake of civil discussion...

This is a small forum, which has not been going for that long of a time.

It's also a little hard to tell what background people really have. On the one hand, we all probably value being a little bit private on-line (and probably don't want to be explicit as to who we are and what our qualifications are), and yet, as the old cartoon goes "no one knows you're a dog on the internet."

While I think I've been clear in various thread here that I'm a physician IRL, how does anyone else know that is true? Well, some of us have a track record of contributing to on-line Austere Medicine boards or similar venues, and have had enough contact with other professionals that we are pretty confident that at least a certain number of on-line people are in fact legitimate health professionals.

Additionally, I believe my interactions with this board's administrator over the years have been sufficient to confirm that I'm a physician, and that's probably why I was asked to moderate this section.

I have had enough on-line interaction with Jonas Parker (here and in other venues) to have a pretty good idea of his background in healthcare.

copperhead, you have posted 4 times on this board, each time in this thread. You haven't introduced yourself. Even now, stating that you teach a course, you haven't provided much background about yourself. How should your comments be taken by members reading the board?

If you don't want to get into that publicly, feel free to PM me to discuss your background.


FWIW - I don't know what it is you are trying to address. OK - I get the part about you not being convinced that the current avian influenza will mutate rapidly. Let's not debate that point for the moment. The OP started this thread by discussing the utility of quarantine.

Your comments to date have been ambiguous about whatever it might be that you are trying to say about the merits or effectiveness of quarantine.

IMHO - that's what is on-topic for this thread.

[Jonas Parker]

No, I didn't go and read it...

It figures. Never let knowledge get in the way of venom...
(rattle, rattle, slither, slither) :D

[copperhead]

I am a retired physical scientist from the largest intelligence agency in the country. Although, I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. It is interesting that you say nothing about jonas calling someone a snake. I suppose that is proper behavior to you. Actually, you guys have been on line for some time and I see why you haven't grown.

[DrBaboon]

http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Main.HomePage

There's too much on the site to be reviewed by any single person. While I have not read everything on the site, I have read various materials at different times over a prolonged period.

On the whole, I would recommend the site for people to read. I think people would find topics worth discussing.

Quarantine has been effective for such epidemics for ages.

[DrBaboon]

I am a retired physical scientist from the largest intelligence agency in the country.

True or not, who can say? Regardless, let's take your reply at face value for now.

Your posts don't address the topic of quarantine effectiveness.

And yet your posts suggest nefarious activity involving H5N1 influenza.

Looking around the internet, there are sites that promote various conspiracy theories about avian influenza. The ones I've looked at do not offer much in the way of proof to support such theories.

As with many conspiracy theories, there are sometimes "grains of truth" here or there, even if the overall theory doesn't withstand scrutiny.

Some "grains of truth:"

http://www.gilead.com/wt/sec/pr_933190157/

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2005-11-16-tamiflu-usat_x.htm

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/31/news/newsmakers/fortune_rumsfeld/

In spite of the recent news articles pointing out "creative editing" of Wikipedia articles, I'll be "foolish" and put out a couple Wikipedia links, too. I'll also assume that people need to satisfy their own curiosity about the accuracy of the information on Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilead_Sciences

And just in case anyone wants to learn about TAMIFLU (oseltamavir), including how it's synthesized from Shikimic Acid, and that Shikimic Acid comes from Star Anise, which grows in China and Viet Nam.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamiflu

FWIW - the Sambucol website is currently being redone:

http://www.sambucol.com/ so it's not very helpful today.

Sambucol is the original elderberry product directed against influenza.

There are occasional instances of conspiracy theorists mixing up elderberry/sambucol with tamiflu/shikimic acid/star anise, and suggesting that Donald Rumsfeld is benefitting from elderberry products.

Of course, if I had a nickle for every elderberry/sambucol discussion I have been asked to get into in the last few years, I'd quit my day job. While I think there is some merit to sambucol, it needs more research. My point here is that there seems to be a curious split between independant minded people, who you might think would have a lot in common. There are those who are fans of elderberry products for influenza, and there are those who think elderberries are part of a government conspiracy.

IOW - elderberries are not star anise. I have not seen any documentation that establishes a Rumsfeld link to elderberries that holds water.

I'm not particularly upset that Donald Rumsfeld has some good investments in Gilead stock, either.






Back to the question at hand....

Quarantine.

I guess some people assume it will be unfairly directed against them.

Funny thing, I see lots of ways that a community or neighborhood would keep strangers out, which is a type of quarantine. I see lots of ways to self quarantine, or deal with it as a family.

Basically, there's a long track record of successful quarantines.



BTW - I don't particularly care if people agree on a conclusion here or not.

The quality of the discussion ought to be enjoyable.

Regardless of how readers or participants decide their own beliefs, having information and a *basis* for opinion ought to help people come to their own conclusions.

[Jonas Parker]

Calling you a snake? Copperhead, look at your screen name! :p

[Beprepared]

Copperhead, I'd like to point a few things out to you.

As DrBaboon pointed out, we want tokeepa certain amount of anonimity here, but I can tell you, having had medical experience, (and never meeting DrBaboon or Jonas) that the medical expertise they dispense is golden.

Now as a junior member of this forum, let me tell you what to check.

First your going to look in the CDC again, even tho you couldn't make heads or tales of it. You'll see that teh Bird Flu was seen in Turkey last year, and even Germany this month. Its the pure form, but it has to 'round the world before it finds the right place to mutate.

I can promise you that the influenza pandemic at the turn of the 20th century was preceded by a large worldwide birdkill, but no-one at that scientific time made the connection.

Bird Flu is only the recent thing available to kill mankind... we still have AIDS, and our very good freind (*cackle*) Ebola, or even a small break in at the University of Moscow (or the secret bases in Russia) to get another outbreak of smallpox, the first disease used in biological warfare.

WATCH the news, TRACK the infections your scared of.

And as for your comment about when big government mutates the virus... that BS. I bet you believe WTC 1 and 2 were brought down with explosives too.